Pay close attention to the charts. We have double the foreclosure rates of surrounding jurisdictions and the homes are being sold so cheaply that it is bringing the value down for everyone’s home. It seems as if some are so desperate to put a ‘positive’ spin on what’s happening by calling us a ‘Jewel of Recovery’ which is particularly odd phrase.

Dr. Fuller will be extremely useful over the next couple years as we attempt to map the recovery process. I would agree 100% with him about the shift from owners to rentals; this is going to further exacerbate problems in these older neighborhoods which is another reason why the County should invest in additional zoning enforcement officers.

91 thoughts on “Dr. Fuller on Real Estate Market

  1. “I am just pointing out a fact that if two unrelated residents share a house and they each send children to local schools, they are not paying a fair share of the cost of educating those children.” LOL! Too damn bad! Try building some affordable housing instead of McMansions and over-priced unit housing and maybe we wouldn’t have this problem.

  2. “Go out to West Virginia and see how many “immigrants” you see.” Of course not. WV has been declared the hate capital of the world. And PWC is well on its way.

  3. “What the hell does diversity have to do with economic growth?” All the major cities have diversity. Diversity makes an area globally viable economicaly and socially. If we don’t get used to the idea that AIRPLANES and MEDIA have made this a smaller world, then we are going to be left behind.

    So hate to break it to you, folks, but this IS 2008.

  4. “Corey was steeped in “illegal immigration” hysteria and outrage yesterday, which should leave him completely unwilling to listen to other points of view, much less compromise, on Tuesday.” Furthermore, have you EVER seen a politician lobby for his OWN policies WITHIN the community? Sorry, but I’ve never had local government taking a side with voters like this on such a personal level. One wonders what personal stakes CS and JS have in all this. Besides popularity (which they don’t even HAVE any more) it seems they are risking too much now. WHY??? WHAT would make someone do this? Conspiracy theory or not, they are PROTECTING something and it’s not something that’s open to the public. This is TOO obvious. Someone do some more digging please.

  5. Ruby

    Do the Right Thing,
    I don’t know where in WVA you were. I suggest you visit Moorefield or Petersburg, WVA. There are immigrants there. They have numerous poultry plants. They definately attract immigrants. I don’t know if they are illegal or not. Take a looking at Harrisonburg(Rockingham Co).

  6. SecondAlamo

    Of course you find immigrants where there is prosperity. That is where they will find jobs and social support. It has nothing to do with them creating the economy to begin with! That’s why they came to Virginia. duh!

  7. Ruby

    SA,
    Do you not agree ALL human beings need a place to live? Of course people live where they can afford to. I hope you don’t fall to hard off of that HIGH horse you are sitting on.

  8. “It has nothing to do with them creating the economy” Technically, you are correct that undocumented citizens can’t create the economy. They are pawns of people who don’t give them the right to be acknowledged or protected or treated fairly but keep them employed without a means of getting “papers”. Perhaps, SA, you should thank big business and the “real Americans” that reap the benefits of what has become slave labor.

  9. LuckyDuck

    Kgotthardt, I am not trying to ferment a disagreement with you, but you keep coming back to me with holier than thou solutions.

    To address your worldly solutions:
    1. The County is NOT going to be able to issue work permits for immigrants as you suggested.
    2. The developers are not going to build affordable housing because they make less profit from them. Our board should have been enforcing this all along, but everyone says “not in my backyard”.

    So your “to damm bad” about the County losing money on multiple non related families in one house only adds to your pie in the sky answers. Give me some REAL suggestions that we can debate, but thus far, you have presented unworkable solutions on the local level.

  10. LuckyDuck

    Hi Elena, I agree with you that all waves of immigrants probably shared housing at some point to cover expenses. The Irish did, the Italians did and when I was growing up, the Vietnamese did also. What is different for today’s wave is that we as a public notice more and are more inclined to either comment or object. Society, particulary in this area, has different expectations of immigrants than in earlier, less media savy times. I am second generation who lived in a similar ethnic community growing up so some actions considered objectionable were accepted. Our society today is less tolerant.

  11. Willoughby

    SecondAlamo said on 27 Apr 2008 at 2:32 pm:
    Of course you find immigrants where there is prosperity. That is where they will find jobs and social support. It has nothing to do with them creating the economy to begin with! That’s why they came to Virginia. duh!

    SA, you are one of the few reasons I keep coming back to this site! What a breath of fresh air your posts are, and you are driving them crazy here with your forthright common sense.

  12. Moon-howler

    Alamo,

    Diversity also refers to socio-economic conditions also. The boss doesn’t want to take out his own garbage. All societies, especially the more advanced, wealthier ones, have this type of diversity.

  13. Moon-howler

    Alamo,

    Earlier apology accepted. I should have put my sarcasm alert on. Too earlier or too late. I dont remember.

  14. Moon-howler

    Luckyduck,

    I see your point and it is one I had not thought about. Back in the day, immigrants were far removed from the middle and upper classes. Immigrants lived in enclaves and the only time paths crossed were when the immigrant went to work.

    Rapid communication and transportation bring the immigrant closer. When immigrants move into an area like ours, they take up the inexpensive housing. When that runs out, the more creative ones pile into the more middle class communities, several families at a time.

    And that is the rub. We bought one on one and they bought two (or 3) on one to make ends meet. That 2 for one does short change the municipality. Of course, having a bunch of kids does too. Just an observation.

    How does 2 families of 2 kids each strike any harder than 1 family having 4 kids? I know 2 half carat rubies or diamonds aren’t going to cost as much as 1 full carat ruby or diamond.

  15. Ruby

    MH,
    Excellent points at 4:12.
    The Ruby is a diamond in the rough. 😉

  16. LuckyDuck

    Hi Moon-Howler, I see your point about having more kids in a one family house. Perhaps I am looking at it as a matter of fairness or equity in the system.

    I take it you are a female, diamonds never crossed my mind.

  17. Kgotthardt, I am not trying to ferment a disagreement with you GO AHEAD AND DISAGREE AWAY! THAT’S WHY WE HAVE THIS FORUM, ISN’T IT? TO FIND SOLUTION? , but you keep coming back to me with holier than thou solutions. AIN’T NOTHING HOLY ABOUT ME, DEAR.

    To address your worldly solutions:
    1. The County is NOT going to be able to issue work permits for immigrants as you suggested. NO BUT THE COUNTY CAN STOP PLAYING FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND WASTING OUR MONEY AND GO LOBBY THE REAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO MAKE THIS HAPPEN! CS WENT TO TESTIFY TO CONGRESS, AND BASICALLY, HE DID NOTHING. AND HIS RESOLUTION ISN’T DOING ANYTHING EITHER. LET’S DO WHAT WE CAN IN THE RIGHT PLACES, AND IN THE MEANTIME, FOCUS ON CRIMINALS IN THE PRISON AND CLEANING UP NEIGHBORHOODS, NOT THIS RIDICULOUS POLICY.
    2. The developers are not going to build affordable housing because they make less profit from them. Our board should have been enforcing this all along, but everyone says “not in my backyard”. THEN, SORRY….THEY ARE STUCK WITH THEIR MISTAKES. MANY PEOPLE SHARE HOUSES, NOT JUST IMMIGRANTS. FOR A TIME, MY FAMILY LIVED WITH MY HUSBAND’S UNCLE, A FRIEND AND HIS GIRL FRIEND. WHY? HOUSING IS TOO EXPENSIVE. AND YUP….SIX CARS BETWEEN US.

    IT’S NOT TOO LATE FOR THE COUNTY TO SUPPORT AFFORDABLE HOUSING THROUGH RICHMOND AND BETTER ZONING. STOP DEVELOPERS FROM BUILDING MORE MCMANSIONS. TELL THEM IF THE HOUSES WON’T SELL FOR UNDER $280,000 WE DON’T WANT THEM. WORK WITH SOME OF THE AFFORDABLE HOUSING GROUPS OUT THERE TO HELP MAKE SENSE OF IT ALL. GET PEOPLE OFF THE STREETS AND STAYING IN THE COUNTY.

    AND WHILE WE ARE TALKING ZONING, DON’T RE-ZONE ANYTHING OUT OF AGRICULTURAL UNTIL THE RECESSION IS OVER! WE HAVE ENOUGH DAMN BUILDINGS AND EMPTY HOUSES. GET THESE DEVELOPERS TO INVEST IN OUR COUNTY—PARKS AND SCHOOLS! THEN MAYBE PEOPLE WILL WANT TO ACTUALLY LIVE HERE AGAIN AFTER THE RESOLUTION IS CANNED.

  18. LuckyDuck

    Kgotthardt, You and I will have to agree to disagree in a civil style. Although I share some, not all, of your concerns, I have been around local government for several decades and frankly, the lobbying by our locals to the State and (God help us) the Feds, will take years and years. Its a dream to think that one County in one State will quickly revamp federal immmigration policy. As for our State, they can’t even address transportation, let alone immigration or Social Services. So using this approach, nothing will happen in the short, medium or long term.

    I am by nature a practical person who needs to see a clear goal and a work out a path to said goal. Lobbying and lobbying is a slow death to no end. So we’ll agree to disagree. Friends?

  19. Elena

    Lucky Duck,
    Off to bathtime and bedtime for the kids. I am just catching up now and am thoroughly enjoying reading the posts between you, Ruby, MH, and KG. I hope to add more later!

  20. I don’t have time to respond to every comment. I suggest you read my post on this subject. http://citizentom.wordpress.com/2008/04/27/defending-the-border-from-sophistry/

    anonymom – For some reason, you want to equate bigotry with conservative Republicans. Has it occurred to you that that is intolerant? We have laws on the books. We think the laws make sense. We are disappointed that our political leaders in DC refuse to enforce those laws.

    We tried, when Reagan was president, amnesty. That did not work. Still, you have the gall to call us intolerant. Frankly, I think you don’t know what you are talking about.

  21. Moon-howler

    Willoughby, I don’t think you or SecondAlamo are driving anyone crazy here.

    I actually like Second Alamo, even though we tend to disagree on some issues. I would be sorry to see him/her leave. He adds some substance to the discussion, unlike you. Your intent is to insult and be a gadfly.

  22. Lucky, it’s always fun discussing things with you! You make me bound and determined to find even more solutions. LOL. I also see that since you’ve been around, you don’t have the kind of “we can do anything” attitude I have (because I am naive or stubborn or idealistic or….)

    I understand the state can’t fix the roads. And I understand they can’t do much by themselves. But if enough people get together and demand congress to act, then at least we’ve done SOMETHING! Right now, we’re just sitting here saying, “Nah. NOthing we can do about it so let’s try to fix it at the county level.” It CANNOT BE DONE at the county level without bankrupting us and bringing social chaos.

    If our congress people won’t do anything, then we need to vote them out and get people who WILL do something. This is the United States, dammit! How can we let PAPERWORK destroy our unity like this????

  23. BTW, we’re so close to DC and have screwed this whole thing up so badly, we might actually be ABLE to make the feds do something FAST! Nothing like catastrophe to make people wake up and MOVE.

  24. Moon-howler

    Luckyduck,

    Yep, female. I am a great believer in ‘diamonds are a girl’s best friend’ but other stones are nice also. Lapis, turquoise (a particular favorite of mine), opals, amethyst, topaz…oh stop me please.

    I do understand your point about artifically created apartments. I also think there is not one thing we can so about it. I live next door to a house that has converted be a rooming house/apartment (no kids). I live behind another house converted to a 2 family home top/bottom fashion (couple of kids).

    If these occupants continue to be good neighbors, they won’t hear a peep out of me. If they start being crappy neighbors, I know of their violations and I will not hesitate to use what I know. I think that is fair. I am not going to heckle and needle people just for the fun of it.

  25. In looking back to see what I said to upset Second Alamo, I’ve decided it must be the word “must.” I think what I should have said is diversity is an “advantage.” But I will say that we must look for advantages, and try not to lose them, if we are to compete with other counties in this region and avoid becoming the ugly duckling of the DC Metro economy (as we are currently in the DC Metro housing market).

    One of the many new things I learned from Dr. Fuller is that this region has the healthiest economy in the U.S., and as a result, Virginia is consistently ranked the best to state to do business. While the rest of the nation slips into recession, Virginia will not — we will see a slow down, but not a recession, he predicts.

    In this region where so many new businesses and new capital investment are flowing in from around the globe, it would be to our advantage as a county to maintain the level of diversity we have, because companies look for diversity as one of the criteria in deciding where to break ground. In fact, the international diversity of the DC area population is one of the reasons why businesses hoping to succeed in the global economy are drawn here.

    In addition, we have a job shortage in this area. We are competing with the other counties for workers. And, once again, immigrants and migrants from other parts of this country look for diversity when they decide where to settle in this area. I’m not sure if I included this in the video, but Dr. Fuller pointed out something that has long been obvious to me — that the most creative people, and those who tend to be in the highest income bracket, prefer to live in diverse, stimulating dynamic communities. One example he gave was they like to eat at different kinds of restaurants. But I have noticed that people from rural, once exposed to a diverse college campus or urban environment, are “hooked” on diversity, and are hard pressed to return to the homogeneous areas from whence they came.

    If Prince William County is known, fairly or unfairly, as a place that is not tolerant of diverse populations, we will not only lose out on the economic benefit of those immigrants who provide the working-class engine, added tax base, and added jobs (a net benefit, Dr. Fuller argues, contrary to what FAIR or Greg Letiecq might tell you). We also lose out on more skilled, more educated immigrants who are looking for diversity when they decide where in this region to settle. And, we lose out on highly-skilled American workers who come here from other parts of the country.

    The short term effect on the housing market is already obvious. But also, this stigma effects our long term prospects for attracting new businesses and investment. Our economy depends on “idea” people. We need the types of people who are drawn to the diversity associated with metro areas, and usually turned off by the kind of intolerance that is currently our reputation. If we are a county with less “idea” people, we have yet another disadvantage when companies decide where to locate themselves.

    So, with that said, here is the new video, which turned out to be a contrast in world views between Dr. Fuller, and Michael Hethmon of FAIR, one of the principle authors of the Immigration (Rule of Law) Resolution.

    PS: RedDawn, that was hilarious linking me to the Jeopardy music! I’m laughing about it, but then again, now I have that darn song stuck in my head.

  26. Eric, you are being too nice: “If Prince William County is known, fairly or unfairly, as a place that is not tolerant of diverse populations” I think it’s fairly labeled as such. If I were “browner” I wouldn’t move here and I might move out pretty fast. If nothing else, who wants their kids targeted like Mr. Fernandez’s kids were? No way.

  27. hello

    I don’t think that wanting illegal immigrants out of this county equals hate, I also don’t think that if you waved a magic wand and all of the illegal immigrants were removed from PWC is would be any less diverse than it was before. I’ve lived here for about 20 years and it was pretty diverse when I got here. Also, some people here say that PWC is causing fear in the community with the resolution that is causing people to leave. I personally don’t think that the resolution is causing fear (with legal residents), I think it’s a combination of things. One thing would have to be the rhetoric that MWB spread leading up to the resolution caused fear. Another would have to be this site. Take a look at some of the titles to the past threads:

    – ZEIGEN SIE MIR IHRE PAPIERE, SEIEN SIE IHRE PAPIERE IM AUGTRAG? This was an attempt to compare PWCPD to Nasi storm troopers.
    – CHILDREN WHO ARE CITIZENS ARE BEING DENIED HIGHER EDUCATION! – This was simply not true at all, this case had to do with a kid who was denied in-state tuition because he was considered a dependant and as a dependant he parents had to prove they lived on VA which they could not do because they were here illegally. I think the rules for this need to be looked at and possibly changed because this guy does live in VA, however, suggesting legal citizens “are being denied higher education!” is absurd.
    – ETHNIC CLEANSING IN PRINCE WILLIAM – Yet another fear tactic used.

  28. I get you KGotthardt. But you would it is a bit unfair that we have this reputation, when only a small segment of the population wanted what has happened here. There are a lot of people who opposed it. They just weren’t as organized. They don’t deserve to suffer the economic impacts. They don’t deserve to be considered to live in the most backward part of NoVA. But the overwhelming majority of people in Prince William didn’t know what was happening last year, and didn’t vote at all. I almost feel worse for those people, whose lives are being be severely affected and yet played no role whatsoever, probably didn’t even vote.

    So yes, while there are certain people in the county that earned the bad reputation, I don’t think it’s deserved for all of us.

  29. “I don’t think it’s deserved for all of us.” NO it’s not deserved for all of us! I didn’t mean that. I meant HSM et al have RUINED it for all of us now.

    I understand what you mean now. Thanks for clarifying, Eric.

  30. anon

    This is the same Dr. Fuller who 2 weeks ago gave a glowing report on the Northern Virginia economy after being paid by the American Electronics Association to do so. He’s just a paid gun, who will say anything. Now the illegal alien lobby is paying him so now he’s saying the opposite of what he just said! He doesn’t have a lot of credibility when his views flip flop every other week. He also said a year ago that the Northern Virginia housing market prices would keep rising and never fall, and by the year 2050 the average home in the DC area would cost more than $14 million. Yes, he sure is very credible!

  31. hello

    kgotthardt – wow, this is the same type of rhetoric I was talking about which is being used, directly or indirectly, to instill fear. Also, no offense but just because you have been to the Holocaust Museum doesn’t give you the right to compare the resolution to the Holocaust. Detaining illegal aliens when they come into contact with the police does not compare, I’m sorry but the Nazi reference is over the top and offensive and is just (in my opinion) being used as an attention grabbing scare tactic.

    I do agree that the illegal immigration issue needs to be handled carefully because most illegal immigrants are of one race but I don’t agree with calling the resolution racist. It in no way says anything about race. If Joe Smith from Syria is pulled over and is here illegally he will be handled the same as someone from Mexico.

  32. hello

    Sorry kgotthardt, I just reread my comment and I take that back, you do have the right to compare the resolution to what ever you want. I just don’t agree with it.

  33. anon

    kghotthardt: 6 million Jewish people were KILLED in the holocaust. One guesses you must not have studied the Holocaust museum very carefully to compare the holocaust to what is now going on in PWC. It is just a small example of the misinformation being perpetuated on this website. Are you trying to say the resolution is killing people?

    Talk about racism! You are apparently a racist too to make a foolish statement like that! This board just lost the remaining credibility it had comparing what is going on in PWC to the Holocaust!

  34. Michael

    Eric Byler at 12:23 Diversity has never proven to be related to economic growth in any country I know of, in fact the countries that are most culturally diverse, are usually the ones most likely at war with each other and have cultural hatred shaping their political battles. It is culture that celebrate cultural and national unity and cultural blending that prosper, in almost every case. You econimic concept od “diversity” is good does not hold water, only wishful thinking.

    The real problem with “diversity” is it promotes a “one of each mentality” and un-equitably harms and discrimminates majority groups due to illegal racial and ethnic group numerical balancing schemes, any and every “cultural group” who has more members in it than a “minority” set of numbers is unfairly disadvantaged. Each “one of each” minority person is given an unfair advantage over a group of majority members entirely based on race, gender, religion or ethnic group and that is illegal and discriminatory.

  35. redawn

    Eric,

    “PS: RedDawn, that was hilarious linking me to the Jeopardy music! I’m laughing about it, but then again, now I have that darn song stuck in my head”

    If you thought that song was bad for being stuck in your head, wait until you get to the thread ” Holy Smoke” HAH HAH 🙂

  36. Michael, if you look at the USA, the places with more diversity also have the healthier economies. I’m sorry but I don’t understand the rest of your post.

  37. ReDawn, I am not clicking on unmarked links in your posts ever again. (=

  38. Michael

    Eric Byler 1:03
    I’m sorry but I don’t understand the rest of your post.

    Ok I’ll explain again:
    The real problem with “diversity” is it promotes a “one of each concept” and disadvantages (harms) and discrimminates against majority groups (while advantaging minority groups) due to illegal racial and ethnic group numerical balancing schemes. Any and every “cultural group” who has more members (say 100) in it than a “minority” set of numbers (say 10 groups of 10 different minorities) is unfairly disadvantaged.

    Why? Because one of each group is chosen, 1 from a majority group of 100, 1 from each minority group of 10. 99 people in the majority group are discrimminaqted against so 1/10 of each group, rather than 1/100 of each group can get special treatment and a numerical advantage. This is why numbers balancing is “illegal”. Equal opportunity is not guaranteed and equal outcome are attempted to be manipulated ny minorities promoting “diversity concepts”, which is illegal according to the Supreme Court ruling. Each “one of each” minority person is given an unfair advantage over a group of majority members entirely based on race, gender, religion or ethnic group and that is illegal and discriminatory.

    As racist and discriminitory as you can get!

  39. Michael

    The only legal concept is to treat all 200 people as individuals and choose each based on skill, ability, and performance. This is an “individual rights concept” not a group rights concept. Eric your concept about diverse communities being wealthier is because “illegal” immigrants and “legal” immigrants flock to cities, but they are typically on the lowest end of the pay scale. What makes these communities wealthy is not “diversity:, but the most wealthy people who live there ALSO flock to cities. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THEIR RACE OR ETHNIC GROUP OR “Diversity” FACTOR. Some people just don’t have solid economic proof for their beliefs.

  40. Michael

    Your cause and effect is all distorted. There is diversity, and wealth therfore diversity must create wealth (not true).

    The real answer is there is wealth, because wealthy people flock to cities. A diverse group of “illegals” and recently legal immigrants also flock to cities but do not contribute “significantly” to the regions wealth. “diversity” is a result of more immigrants and thier hope that a possibility of finding jobs in cities is higher, and of having people of sympathetic and self-identifying groups ask them to join cultural forces their for more political power for each group to influence on others not like themselves. These prior “illegal” or “legal” immigrants are more likely to be in government jobs and in city politics promoting their own cultural group welfare than people living outside of the city regions.

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