Chairman Stewart is on the press circuit again ‘touting the benefits’ of the ‘Immigration Resolution’. And, this time instead of his usual anecdotal stories about shorter lines at emergency rooms, or drops in ESOL students, he suggests there is a connection between a lower crime rate and the Immigration Resolution. Frankly, it’s laughable.

According to the DC Examiner, Stewart’s theory is that crime rates drop when ‘illegals’ leave. The converse of this statement being that the crime rate increases when ‘illegals’ arrive. It’s a pretty simple hypothesis and easily verifiable. If this hypothesis is true, as we have this supposed influx of ‘illegals’ that purportedly necessitated some action on our part, we should see clear statistical evidence witnessed by higher crime rates in the years preceding the resolution.

So, let’s review, according to the article, in 2004 the crime rate per thousand is 24.5, then in 2005, as more ‘illegals’ are ‘flooding into the area bringing their lawlessness and economic hardship with them’, using Stewart’s logic a higher crime rate is excepted but that’s not what happens! Prince William County experiences a drop in crime equal to that of the drop between 2006 and 2007. Additionally, it’s not just a drop from 2004 to 2005 but AGAIN from 2005 to 2006, then the same from 2006 to 2007! Very simply, Stewart’s theory is proven incorrect. The resolution can not reasonably be referenced as the reason why the crime rate has once again decreased for the 4th year in a row.

112 Thoughts to “Illogical Stewart Strikes Again”

  1. Moon-howler


    The 287(g) program at the ADC was not part of the original resolution. No one that I am aware of has a problem with it. No one wants criminals in their neighborhood.


    I do hope you are aware of the fact that many people here on this blog worked tirelessly to get the resolution reworded into its final form. It isn’t perfect but life is full of compromises. There are people out there who shall go nameless, who would spin anything in to their own win.

    Careful inspection of the ‘Resolution’ from its inception until final passage will show what I am saying to be true. The only way to change it was because funding. Do not think that went down without a fight.

  2. Censored bybvbl

    Are you telling me that a criminal deported won’t come back? A criminal in detention is a criminal detained…illegally here or not. Good. If he/she is guilty and kept off the streets, fine.

    Before you support Corey’s spin, consider that the same good police work that has made crime stats fall for years could be negated in some instances if people become fearful of the police.

  3. Rick Bentley

    Censored as I said before, I place no value in statistics. I do know that where I live – zip code 20109 – people are generally very happy about the exodus of illegals, and feel safer. And there are many logical reasons that they should.

    Moon-howler the resolution is what it is. It tells illegals that if they drive a car here and get stopped, they might be deported, and all the bleeding heart ACLU lawyers and activist judges in the world can’t stop that. So I am very happy with it.

  4. Censored bybvbl

    RB, I’m in zip 20112 and most people I know are more upset about the brouhaha created by HSM than they are overcrowded houses. There are isolated incidences of overcrowding or operating businesses illegally out of houses but immigration does not register high on the scale of subjects people are concerned about. It’s a subject that the right wingnuts will try to play up this fall so that they can take people’s minds off of the war, gas prices, utility prices, foreclosures, health care, the shrinking job market.

  5. hello

    Censored, “the shrinking job market”, don’t you think that illegal labor contributes to the shrinking job market? Also, “health care”, don’t we indirectly pay for illegal immigrant health care causing it to go up (even by a little)? And “foreclosures”, didn’t illegal immigrants contribute their fair share of foreclosures at least in this county? My point is it seems as if people overlook the fact that illegal immigration plays a contributing factor to most of the issues you stated. Alone, maybe not so bad but the combined effects mount up.

  6. Censored bybvbl

    Hello, in some cases I’m sure it does contribute to a tight job market. However, I grew up in a “one industry” area where immigration (the local pols went to Mexico to recruit labor) saved jobs. The labor shortage was such that the industry would have moved overseas in order to continue in business. The immigrants who move to that area enabled the mills to continue to operate and employ the locals as well as the immigrants.

    I think the feds make out while some localities lose. IOW, your social security may be a bit safer because of what immigrants have paid in but will not recover, but you may pay more for schools locally. That is an issue that I feel the federal government is going to need to address.

  7. hello

    I totally agree Censored, the feds make out while some localities lose which is why the feds don’t seem to do much about the problem. I think that is why your seeing more and more counties implement some kind of “resolution”.

  8. Moon-howler


    Does a person get arrested for driving without a license? I don’t think so, at least not routinely. I don’t necessarily think driving without a license makes one eligible for deportation.

    For the record, I have no problem with jailing criminals. I have no problem holding illegal aliens who have allegedly committed an arrestable crime in ADC rather than releasing them on bail.

  9. Lucky Duck

    Hi Moon-howler, yes, a person can in fact, be arrested for driving without a license. If that person has no identification to verify who the are, where they live with them or has been convicted of such an offense prior (which the police can check in their vehicles via DMV). In addition, such an offense is a mandatory court appearance, not one that can be prepaid. In PWCPD, officers are strongly encouraged to bring anyone (citizen or not) into the magistrate for a bond to ensure a court appearance for a subject driving without a license. This is particulary important in an accident case to assure the other party has the correct information and the judge can mandate the victim be fully paid for any of the damages (by insurance usually) they may have incurred.

    Since the 287(G) program is in effect at the jail, ICE will be contacted if a person arrested for no operator’s license is held on a bond. In theory, yes, they could be deported.

  10. Moon-howler

    Thanks for that explanation Lucky Duck. I did not know that. (obviously)

    Question for you, is this something new? I had a friend hit several years ago on the parkway. The person did not have a license. She had to absorb the cost of the car repairs. I don’t know what happened to the driver. She was never told.

    Now this is dead wrong and if new policies in place prevent this nonsense from going on, then good!

  11. statistician

    Rick Bentley said on 1 July 2008, 22:16

    “The crime rates are statistics manipulated by Chief Deane’s Police Department.
    In and of themselves they may not mean much.”

    What argument would you present on the ‘how’ the crime rates were manipulated?

    Alanna said on 2 July 2008, 8:52

    “But really, how does Corey attempt to take credit for a crime rate that has been
    decreasing for 4 years and attribute and attempt to attribute it to the resolution?”

    Exactly how has Corey attempted to take credit for the decreasing crime rate? What Corey seems to do is correct the record of discord reflecting the reality of what the implementation of the Resolution has done in regards to reported crime. Crime that is reported becomes a statistic. Without legitimate reporting, a paper trail is non-existent. Statistics are based on data collected based on reports. Perhaps also the crime rate has been decreasing over 4 years because not only PWC but other regions have begun to find ways to deal with a systemic problem. The mere fact that a commotion began to disturb the comfortable illegals, from wherever they have come, to find others places to relocate themselves from the present heat of law enforcement.

  12. Alanna

    The article in the DC Examiner states that the decrease is because of the Resolution! It’s absurd the connection between these two things is purely fiction on his part. I would go so far as to say an outright misrepresentation to serve some twisted purpose on his part. He must find it difficult to sleep at night with these things on his conscious, on second thought maybe he’s able to sleep because he has no conscious. Of everything, Corey has done this one is particularly bothersome because it’s so blantanly false.

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